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Saturday, January 31, 2015
Quotes…
Thursday, January 29, 2015
Это было сказано уже после 2008-го года…
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Я — в задумчивости…
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Tuesday, January 27, 2015
Кризис и “антикризисный план”…
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Monday, January 26, 2015
Детские мысли о футболе…
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О погоде, совсем немного…
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Sunday, January 25, 2015
Нашел решение…
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Вопрос про Google Play Store…
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Огни в ночи…
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И немного совсем “семейного”…
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Вопреки Законам Мерфи…
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Saturday, January 24, 2015
Обама и экономика России…
Статья в “Politico”.
Speaking at a Moscow event in early October, Russian President Vladimir Putin sounded cocky about the sanctions imposed on his country by Washington and its European allies. The penalties, Putin said, were "utter silliness" that would only hurt Western businesses.
But now that Russia's economy is rapidly imploding, with oil prices plunging and the ruble collapsing, Putin is the one feeling the pain. And the question already being debated in Washington is whether President Barack Obama's strategy of economically sanctioning and isolating Russia deserves any credit.
Story Continued Below
"It's hard to disaggregate out the independent effects of the sanctions from the bigger story. Obviously the driver is oil prices," said Obama's former ambassador to Moscow, Michael McFaul.
"That said, there is no doubt that sanctions raise uncertainty about the Russian economy. Their own minister of economic development said today that the ruble is falling faster than the macroeconomic indicators would suggest it should be," McFaul added.
Republicans, who have long maligned Obama's policy as too timid, were more skeptical. "I think it's a pretty hard sell to say that the sanctions strategy on Russia is what is tanking the ruble right now," said a senior congressional GOP aide.
"The impact of sanctions is absolutely marginal in this story," added the aide.
Though the cause is disputed, no one disagrees that Putin's economy is in crisis. On Tuesday, the Russian ruble fell nearly 6 percent in value — and is down by nearly half since Putin's Oct. 2 comments. The price of oil, on which Putin's economy relies, has plunged by about a third. Trying to stem the damage, Russia's central bank has cranked up interest rates to a whopping 17 percent. Still, analysts see little relief ahead for a Russian economy in a spiral that recalls a 1998 crash that required massive international aid — and which rocked Moscow's political leadership.
"We couldn't imagine what's happening in our worst nightmare even a year ago," Sergey Shvetsov, a senior Russian central banking official, said in Moscow on Tuesday.
Even so, Obama remains cautious in his approach to the Russian leader. On Tuesday, the White House said Obama would sign new legislation passed by Congress authorizing additional sanctions on Moscow, along with military aid for Ukraine, despite his "concerns" that it could upset European allies nervous about a boomerang effect for their own economies. (Obama can waive the new sanctions, though administration officials would not say whether he will.)
And in public, Obama officials are humble about the role of sanctions imposed by the West since Putin's annexation of Crimea in March. The crisis in Russia is "not due solely to sanctions," State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said Tuesday. "It's more complicated and involves oil prices and general economic mismanagement in Russia."
Privately, however, Obama officials and allies take clear satisfaction from Putin's plight and are more willing to claim credit.
"We're seeing a toxic cocktail for Putin and Putinism," said a senior administration official. "The sanctions highlight the economic and geopolitical cost of the foreign policy choices that Putin has made. It has made clear that he is an unpredictable actor on the international stage, and markets react to that as much as governments do."
While conceding the role of global oil prices and general "economic mismanagement" by Putin, the official said that sanctions have fueled a credit crunch as key Russian lenders find themselves cut off from foreign financing at a moment of stress for major Russian businesses.
"It took a little time … but if you look at the economic indicators in Russia now, it's clear Putin miscalculated," said a Senate Democratic aide.
Even as Putin's economy reels, however, there is no sign that he is ready to cry uncle in eastern Ukraine, where Obama officials say Russia has conducted a low-intensity conflict for several months.
And some analysts say that's why Obama shouldn't take too much satisfaction yet. "If the purpose of the policy is to hurt Putin, then absolutely — Obama deserves credit," said Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group. "But I think the purpose of the policy is to help the Ukrainians."
The U.S. has demanded a withdrawal of Russian personnel and equipment and the closing of Ukraine's border with Russia, among other things. But, said the administration official: "We've seen nothing on that front."
Some analysts doubt that even an economic crisis will change Putin's behavior in the near term. McFaul noted that, while downplaying the financial crisis, state-controlled Russian media has depicted it as "a Western plot — a plot to bring about regime change."
In late November, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made the point explicitly: "The West doesn't want to change Russia's policies. They want a regime change," Lavrov told a Moscow think tank, according to the pro-Kremlin English-language outlet RT. Lavrov made similar remarks on Tuesday.
Putin "fundamentally believes this is about undermining him. He doesn't think it's about eastern Ukraine," McFaul said, making it unlikely that Putin will see a settlement in Ukraine as a way out. "I think we're going to be in a prolonged stalemate," McFaul said.
That's why conservatives are urging Obama to deliver more arms to Ukraine. The bill Obama has agreed to sign provides $350 million for military equipment that includes anti-tank and anti-armor weapons, although it does not mandate their delivery and Obama may not actually send the arms.
"The question is whether Ukraine can raise the costs on Russia to where eventually the Russian leadership says, 'it's not worth it,' " said the congressional GOP aide. "And to be crass, I think that's measured in how many Russian body bags are coming back from Ukraine."
Взято — отсюда.
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Русская игрушка…
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Немного о важном…
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Thursday, January 22, 2015
Quotes…
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Wednesday, January 21, 2015
Бешеная популярность…
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Понимание…
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Monday, January 19, 2015
Хорошая новость про футбол…
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BBC извиняется…
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BBC сообщает…
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Sunday, January 18, 2015
И мир ужаснулся…
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Saturday, January 17, 2015
Жулики, — это похоже неубиваемо и будет жить…
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Статья выбивающаяся из общего потока…
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Wednesday, January 14, 2015
Хакеры добрались до святого…
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Tuesday, January 13, 2015
Воспоминания о прошлом…
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Monday, January 12, 2015
Пример большой мерзости…
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Sunday, January 11, 2015
“А ларчик просто открывался…” — ©
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Что здесь не так?…
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Saturday, January 10, 2015
Я, как-то отстал от жизни…
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Последствия от понижения цен на нефть…
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Friday, January 09, 2015
“Мечты, мечты!..” — ©
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Про отношение к армии…
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Он где-то рядом…
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Thursday, January 08, 2015
Круговорот де…нег в природе…
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Wednesday, January 07, 2015
Как нужно ценить историю…
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Tuesday, January 06, 2015
Вдруг, обратил внимание…
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Monday, January 05, 2015
Арестован голым…
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Saturday, January 03, 2015
Про тоннели…
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В Большой Политике, — нет места для морали…
Многие политики в России, говоря о нынешней ситуации и приводя примеры двойных стандартов, пытаются аппелировать к моральным ценностям и к категориям Добра и Зла.
Думаю, это лишнее, особенно там, где играют в “Большую Политику”.
Как-то, один американский журналист на российском политическом шоу ответил очень просто на вопрос, “почему Америка это делает?”
– Потому что она может.
Like the stock market crashes that periodically wipe out so many fortunes, military crises are hard to predict. Washington's track record as a seer of future threats is remarkably poor. From the bombing of Pearl Harbor in the 1940s to North Korea's invasion of the South in the 1950s to the Cuban Missile Crisis in the 1960s to the collapse of South Vietnam in the 1970s to the breakup of the Soviet empire in the 1980s to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in the 1990s to the 9-11 attacks and rise of ISIS in the new millennium, America's policy elite never seems to see looming danger until it is too late.
So don't be surprised if the economic sanctions Washington has led the West in imposing on Russia look like a bad idea a year from now. At the moment, a combination of sanctions and plummeting oil prices seems to be dealing the government of President Vladimir Putin a heavy blow — just retribution, many say, for its invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea last year. But as Alan Cullison observed in the Wall Street Journal this week, sanctions sometimes provoke precisely the opposite response from what policymakers hope. In Russia's case, that could mean a threat to America's survival. Let's briefly consider how Russia's current circumstances could lead to dangers that dwarf the challenges posed by ISIS and cyber attacks.
A paranoid political culture. Russia's moves on Ukraine look to many Westerners like a straightforward case of aggression. That is not the way they look to Vladimir Putin's inner circle of advisors in Moscow, nor to most Russians. That inner circle is drawn mainly from the Russian security services — Putin himself spent 16 years in the KGB — and to them the revolution in Ukraine was a U.S.-backed coup aimed at weakening Russia. Putin describes the Crimea as a birthplace of Russian culture, and his government has repeatedly warned against the expansion of Western economic and political influence into a region historically regarded as Moscow's sphere of influence. Putin relies heavily on the Kremlin bureaucracy to provide him with intelligence (he avoids the Internet), so his briefings tend to reinforce the view that Moscow was forced to intervene in Ukraine by Western subversion aimed at undermining his rule.
A nuclear arsenal on hair trigger. Between the two of them, Russia and America control over 90% of the world's nuclear weapons. However, Moscow is far more dependent on its nuclear arsenal for security, because it cannot afford to keep up with U.S. investments in new warfighting technology. So Russian military doctrine states that it might be necessary to use nuclear weapons to combat conventional attacks from the West. Many Russians think that attacks on their country are a real possibility, and that their nuclear deterrent — which consists mainly of silo-based missiles in known locations — might have to be launched quickly to escape a preemptive strike. Moscow staged a major nuclear exercise during last year's Ukraine crisis in which it assumed missiles would have to be launched fast on warning of a Western attack. A senior Russian officer has stated that 96% of the strategic rocket force can be launched within minutes.
A collapsing economy. Much of Putin's popularity within Russia is traceable to the impressive recovery of the post-Soviet economy on his watch. Since he came to power in 2001, the country's gross domestic product has grown sixfold, greatly increasing the size and affluence of the Russian middle class. But that growth has been based in large part on the export of oil and gas to neighboring countries at a time when energy prices reached record highs. Now the price of oil has fallen at the same time that economic sanctions are beginning to bite. The ruble lost nearly half its value against the dollar last year, and the economy has begun to shrink. Putin blames sanctions for 25-30% of current economic hardships. Many Westerns believe a prolonged recession would weaken Putin's support, but because he can blame outsiders, economic troubles might actually strengthen his hand and accelerate the trend toward authoritarian rule.
A deep sense of grievance. Blaming outsiders for domestic troubles has a long pedigree in Russian political tradition, and it feeds into a deep-seated sense that Russia has been deprived of its rightful role in the world by the U.S. and other Western powers. Russia may have little past experience with democracy, but it was a major power for centuries prior to the collapse of communism. Like authoritarian rulers in other nations, Putin has built his political base by appealing to nationalism, fashioning a revisionist view of recent events in which Russia is the victim rather that the author of its own misfortunes. He has called the break-up of the Soviet Union a tragedy of epic proportions, and apparently really believes it. By tapping into a deep vein of resentment in Russian political culture, Putin has created a broad constituency for standing up to outsiders even if it means prolonged economic hardship and the danger of war.
A vulnerable antagonist. Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen says America faces little danger from Russia's current troubles, but that's because she thinks in economic terms. In a broader sense, America potentially is in great danger because Putin and his advisors really believe they are the target of a Western plot to weaken their country. The biggest concern is that some new move by Russia along its borders degenerates into a crisis where Moscow thinks it can improve its tactical situation by threatening local use of nuclear weapons, and then the crisis escalates. At that point U.S. policymakers would have to face the reality that (1) they are unwilling to fight Russia to protect places like Ukraine, and (2) they have no real defenses of the American homeland against a sizable nuclear attack. In other words, the only reason Washington seems to have the upper hand right now is because it assumes leaders in Moscow will act "rationally."
The unspoken wisdom in Washington today is that if nobody gives voice to such fears, then they don't need to be addressed. That's how a peaceful world stumbled into the First World War a century ago — by not acknowledging the worst-case potential of a crisis in Eastern Europe — and the blindness of leaders back then explains most of what went wrong later in the 20th Century. If we want to avoid the risk of reliving that multi-generation lesson, then U.S. policymakers need to do something more than simply wait for Putin to crack. That day will never come. In the near term, Washington needs to work harder to defuse tensions, including taking a more serious look at the history that led to Moscow's move on Crimea. Over the longer term, Washington needs to get beyond its dangerous aversion to building real defenses against long-range nuclear weapons, because it is just a matter of time before some dictator calls America's bluff.
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Friday, January 02, 2015
New year may mean new view on energy stocks
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Цены на нефть и не только они…
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Пострадавшие…
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Хорошо работать метеорологом…
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Новый год шагает по планете…
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